Las Vegas Bookmaker Johnny Avello: MLB Injuries Leaving a Mark on Betting Futures

Las Vegas Bookmaker Johnny Avello: MLB Injuries Leaving a Mark on Betting Futures

Significant early season injuries are affecting not just the lineups of Major League Baseball teams but also the betting odds. 

Cole Represents a Significant Setback for Yankees 

The biggest news this spring training was that New York Yankees’ star Gerrit Cole would miss the entire season because of Tommy John surgery. He probably will miss a portion of next season too. The Yankees begin their season tomorrow facing the Milwaukee Brewers at 3 p.m. EST). 

This is a team that saw Juan Soto depart as a free agent to the New York Mets this off-season. 

Additionally, on the offensive side, Giancarlo Stanton is experiencing tendinitis in both of his elbows. Surgery could be an option. 

Nonetheless, at DraftKings, the Yankees are listed at +850 to secure the World Series title, following the Los Angeles Dodgers (+275) and Atlanta Braves (+750). 

Dodgers the Big Betting Story

"[The Yankees] did make a couple of moves, with [Cody] Bellinger and [Paul] Goldschmidt,” said Johny Avello, the Las Vegas bookmaker, and Director of Race & Sportsbook at DraftKings. “They lost some guys too. But they have [Aaron] Judge. He has tremendous regular seasons but seems to struggle in the post season now. But [the Yankees] are going to be a competitive team all year long. Betting slowed down a little bit [after Cole went down]. The faucet hasn’t shut off, it’s just not as strong as it was.”

The Dodgers are the major headline in betting, following their World Series title last Fall. 

“They are Dodgers are absolutely loaded, and then they get [Blake] Snell, so they improved even more,” he said. “We shortened our price on them even more this morning. We were +290, now we are at +275 for the Dodgers to win it all. I have seen this before – you have a powerhouse team that goes in but that doesn’t mean you hand them the championship. Everything went right for them last year but they could have been knocked out by the Padres very easily, and not even made the World Series.”

Soto Enhances Mets Wagering 

DraftKings reports that bettors are heavily backing the Mets in the futures market, with odds at +1200 to win the World Series. 

“The Mets are going in with the hopes of starting the way they finished last season (89-73, and a Wildcard berth), and now they get [Juan] Soto, and sign [Pete] Alonso. The team is intact, and that’s why we are seeing more money on the Mets,” Avello said.

"A couple of surprises. The bettors like the Red Sox (+2000). The Reds are another team that is surprising [on the betting side].”

In Texas, the Rangers are dealing with a major issue as crucial pitcher Jon Gray broke a wrist after being struck by a line drive during a Cactus League match. 

Complete Injury Roster 

The Mets are without catcher Francisco Alvarez, who launched 25 home runs in 2023 as a rookie, 11 last year, and is now sidelined due to a hand fracture. The Atlanta Braves put Ronald Acuna Jr. on the injured list due to a knee issue. Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles is beginning the season on the disabled list. The Padres will prioritize caution and maintain pitcher Yu Darvish on the injured list due to elbow inflammation. 

In Toronto, a Blue Jays (+6000) team relying on its starting pitcher awaits updates on the feelings of free agent acquisition Max Scherzer. Scherzer is experiencing thumb problems on his throwing hand and will make his debut against the Baltimore Orioles Saturday in the third game of their season-opening series. 

Centerfielder Daulton Varsho recently underwent rotator cuff surgery last Fall and may not be included in the opening day roster. The Blue Jays boast a strong starting rotation – Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Scherzer, and Bowden Francis – yet they are aging (average age of 34), and any injury setback could derail the whole team. 

Seattle Mariners' starting pitcher George Kirby, an All-Star in 2023, is expected to be sidelined at the beginning of the season due to shoulder inflammation. 

A full MLB injury list is here.

Tigers are a solid underdog choice. 

This is affecting MLB futures, traders are indicating, particularly concerning the Yankees. 

BetMGM states that the Yankees remain the favored team to clinch the AL Pennant, even with injuries, now listed at +350 after starting at +290. The Dodgers are the clear betting frontrunners to secure the NL Pennant, at +140. 

At BetMGM, the Dodgers have the best odds to win the World Series at +240, with the Yankees and Atlanta Braves next at +900. 

“Starting pitching was supposed to be a strength of the Yankees. Losing Gerrit Cole for the season is a major setback and now the American League is wider open. However, New York is still the favorite to win the AL.” said Halvor Egeland, Trading Strategy Manager, BetMGM.

BetVictor states that everything is steady at the moment. 

Keep an Eye on the Cubs

“Betting numbers are pretty steady in the run up the season,” said Karl Molyneux, a trader with BetVictor. “Not much movement in the World Series but a small move for the Texas Rangers, 12/1 to 10/1.”

Avello mentioned MLB underdogs worth monitoring for betting: Boston Red Sox (+2000 to champion), San Diego Padres (+2800), Detroit Tigers (+3500), Blue Jays, Cincinnati Reds (+9000).

"There are some teams that don’t take any money – the Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, they haven’t seen a lot,” he said. “There are some sprinkles around some of those other teams. The Chicago Cubs are a team that always takes money. They have Kyle Tucker now and Ryan Pressly from the Astros. They look to be competitive in their division. People will take a shot with them.”