Thanksgiving Football Feast: $4.5B in Wagers Expected this Week

Thanksgiving Football Feast: $4.5B in Wagers Expected this Week

Thanksgiving and football make the perfect combination as both are uniquely American, and while sports betting isn't exclusive to the US, many local bettors will indulge in football wagers alongside their turkey this week. 

In a recent report for clients, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon predicts that US gamblers will make $4.5 billion in bets this week within regulated markets. Beynon characterizes Thanksgiving Week as the timeframe from November 25 to December 1. 

That projection suggests an annual increase of 11%, and although that $4.5 billion will probably encompass various sports, specifically basketball, football — spearheaded by the NFL — will carry the main weight. 

Football is the most bet-on sport in the US, and this Thanksgiving, a record 38 states along with Washington, DC will allow some type of sports wagering. Beynon predicts that betting volumes will rise by 15% this week compared to last year, and the NFL is accommodating bettors. On Thanksgiving, three games will take place, and the Kansas City Chiefs are set to play against the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday. Next comes the typical Sunday lineup. 

College football is contributing as well. There are matches every week, with at least one on Thanksgiving and over a dozen the following day. 

Thanksgiving Football Might Help These Operators 

Heightened wagering during Thanksgiving Week is expected to positively impact the gaming industry overall, though advantages at the operator level will vary. 

Flutter Entertainment's FanDuel (NYSE: FLUT) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) are the leading sportsbook firms by market share, and this is not expected to alter in the near future, yet Beynon observes that smaller rivals are gaining traction this week. He mentioned that Bally's (NYSE: BALY), Caesars Sportsbook, and Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI) are expected to experience the most significant year-over-year growth in Thanksgiving Week hold.

"BetMGM is coming off two weeks of above-average hold of 11%+, which could represent significant upside should this trend persist,” Beynon wrote.

He mentioned that, according to November data from New York up to November 18, both DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook seemed to be gaining market share. Thanksgiving also boosts football betting in another way. 

All three games on that day are perceived by bettors as high-profile events akin to “Monday Night Football,” leading them to be more willing to place bets on these matches. In week 12 of the NFL season, primetime matchups represented 37% of wagers and 10% of the total handle, as reported by Macquarie. 

Optimistic about Gaming Shares 

Beynon maintains a positive outlook on stocks related to sports betting, assigning “outperform” ratings to Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR), DraftKings, Penn Entertainment (NASDAQ: PENN), the parent of ESPN Bet, and Rush Street Interactive. 

He prefers operators that are involved in online gaming, such as sports betting, because of their better gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth potential. 

“We favor Online for two reasons: 1) it is the only major Gaming sector not dependent on the economy for double-digit growth; and 2) it is the only Gaming sector that has consistently exceeded market expectations over the past two years. We forecast 4Q GGR of +23% (+23% online sports betting, +25% iGaming), and 2025E GGR +18% year-over-year,” he concluded.