Trader: Little Interest in Canadian Politics Betting Markets — So Far

Trader: Little Interest in Canadian Politics Betting Markets — So Far

The CBC reports that a licensed iGaming operator in Ontario is retracting its offer, which allowed bettors to wager on US President Donald Trump’s proposed annexation of Canada. 

The narrative reveals that PowerPlay.com provided odds on annexation on Monday, but removed the bet on Tuesday due to worries about "compliance." 

The Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario, the provincial regulator for igaming, informed the CBC that there were no issues with the annexation betting market, viewing it as a “novelty event.” 

Snap Election in Ontario 

BetVictor, on the other hand, is providing various markets on Canadian politics, with Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre as a leading betting favorite under the "Prime Minister of Canada After Next Election," priced at -1400. The Conservatives are favored heavily to win the upcoming election, sitting at -2000 (while the Liberals are at +700). 

“We took two very small bets on this market; seems Canadians don’t seem keen or interested at the moment,” said Karl Molyneux, a trader at BetVictor.

“Leader” Trudeau 

US President Trump has been voicing annexation remarks for several weeks, even referring to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as "governor." Trudeau's Liberal Party has initiated a leadership contest following his announcement earlier this month that he is resigning. The upcoming Canadian federal election is set for Oct. 20, 2025. 

This week, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a sudden provincial election in February mainly to secure a new mandate to address the Trump challenge. FanDuel has created a betting market for that race, where Ford's Conservatives lead as favorites at -1500, the Liberals follow at +900, and the NDP is at +1500. 

Mark Carney is the leading favorite to succeed Trudeau as federal Liberal leader at -750, with Chrystia Freeland close behind at +390, according to FanDuel. 

Capitalizing on Social Media Trends

“It’s a tough one to comment on, as you would need to know the circumstances around why they offered the market, said Glen Hyslop, a BetVictor trader, about PowerPlay’s decision to pull its Trump betting market. “That is a question that only the operator in question can answer.”

Hyslop mentioned that operators are “more influenced by social media and current trends than in the past, so when Trump remarked on making Canada the 51st state, which was trending widely, they might not have fully considered the impact of launching this market and the possible negative reactions it could generate.” 

Polymarket Wagering 

Polymarket, the cryptocurrency prediction betting site, has fully embraced wagering on Canadian politics, such as whether Canada will become the 51st state of the US before July. 

As of Friday morning, bettors assigned a 3% likelihood to that proposition based on a volume of $434,434.